After recording an average growth rate of over 6% per annum in the ten years to 2015, output of lead recovered from scrapped batteries and other lead-bearing wastes and residues is expected to have increased by only 3% per annum in the ten years through to the end of 2025.  In the next ten years to 2035, the rate of increase is forecast to slow further, to an average of no more than 1.2% per annum.

Growth in secondary lead production over the past ten years has occurred against the background of a very large increase in recycling capacity, especially in China, but also in other countries, most notably in India and Korea.  In China, the expansion in recycling capacity has grown significantly faster than the increase in the availability of scrap.  The consequence of excess recycling capacity has been severe competition for feed which has kept the price of battery scrap very high and utilisation rates of recycling operations low.  The result is that few, if any, standalone lead battery recycling operations in China are currently profitable.

Growth in global SLI battery demand will inevitably slow, before reversing in some markets.  Other applications for lead batteries, including UPS systems and motive power (e-bikes, forklift trucks, etc), face increasing competition from alternative battery chemistries such as lithium and sodium.  China is where these developments are most advanced which implies that the current pressure on feed supplies to its recycling industry can only increase over time.

How China’s lead battery recyclers respond to this scenario will have implications not only for the domestic industry but may also have an impact on lead battery recycling industries further afield.

This paper will briefly review recent and current global trends in secondary lead production before focusing in more detail on developments in Asia which have the potential to disrupt established patterns of global trade in lead battery scrap and refined lead.